AGP Executive Report

Energy Infrastructure: Taliban officials say the Herat section of the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) gas pipeline is now 52% complete, with 80 km of pipe laid and 72.3 km transported from Turkmenistan, aiming to finish the 130 km segment by end-2026. Food & Trade: Kazakhstan reported grain and flour exports of 12.2 million tonnes (Sept 2025–Mar 2026), up 13%, with Afghanistan a key destination as shipments to Kabul rose 58% to 2 million tonnes. Humanitarian & Labor: As the World Day Against Child Labor approaches, millions of Afghan children are leaving school for brick kilns, construction sites and workshops to survive grinding poverty. Regional Security & Supply Chains: With the Afghanistan–Pakistan border closed, an Afghan cancer patient and other families face worsening access to treatment and basic goods, while cross-border trade and logistics keep taking a hit. Global Economic Pressure: The World Bank cut its 2026 growth forecast to 2.5% due to the Middle East war, warning of deeper slowdown if energy disruptions intensify—an outlook that can quickly spill into food and fertilizer costs for Afghanistan and neighbors. Defense Industry Watch: A new forecast puts the military drones market on track to reach $29.57 billion by 2030, reflecting rising demand for UAVs in surveillance, logistics and precision operations.

Energy & Infrastructure: Taliban officials say the Herat section of the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India (TAPI) gas pipeline is now 52% complete, with 80 km of pipe laid and 72.3 km already transported to the site, while crews prepare service roads and underground installation ahead of an end-2026 target for the 130-km Herat segment. Food Security & Trade: The World Food Programme warns the Iran war is quietly pushing millions toward acute hunger, citing 45 million more people at risk globally, including 2.3 million in Afghanistan, as shipping disruptions and higher fuel and food costs ripple through trade and fertilizer supply. Regional Connectivity & Policy: India urged a UN Security Council overhaul of Afghanistan sanctions, arguing the current punitive approach is outdated and pushing for trade and welfare-focused tools, including tariff-free access for Afghan goods and an India–Afghanistan air freight corridor. Public Safety & Water Risks: Taliban police in Panjshir report two child drownings in Paryan and the provincial center, highlighting recurring summer fatalities tied to canals and rivers and the need for better safety awareness. Market Volatility: Pakistan’s PSX stayed sharply volatile amid Middle East tensions, with investors reacting to renewed strikes near the Strait of Hormuz and a risk-off mood hitting the KSE-100.

TAPI Energy Build: Taliban officials say the Turkmenistan–Afghanistan–Pakistan–India gas pipeline’s Herat section is now 52% complete, with 80 km of pipe laid and 126 km of land prepared, aiming to finish the 130 km segment by end-2026—an important boost for Afghanistan’s transit revenues and regional energy trade. Education & Construction: Kabul-backed development continues in the north as Afghan authorities launch three school building projects in Takhar’s Rustaq district, targeting improved access for hundreds of students. Drug Enforcement: Afghan counter-narcotics police dismantled a methamphetamine lab in Baghlan’s Tala wa Barfak district and arrested six suspects, adding to recent lab seizures in Uruzgan and Farah. Trade & Connectivity: Afghanistan’s economy is also in the spotlight through maritime disruption concerns, with reports tying the Hormuz crisis to delays in aid delivery and pressure on humanitarian lifelines. Food Security Shock: The World Food Programme warns the Iran war is worsening hunger, citing higher fuel and food costs and fertilizer disruptions—impacting Afghanistan among other vulnerable countries. Cross-Border Tensions: Afghanistan accuses Pakistan of airstrikes in Kunar, Khost and Paktika that it says killed 13 civilians, including 11 children, as both sides trade blame. Security & Law: In the UK, two small-boat pilots—an Afghan and a Sudanese national—were jailed as the first offenders sentenced under a new offence targeting those who endanger lives during Channel crossings.

Energy Infrastructure: Afghanistan’s TAPI pipeline push in Herat has crossed the halfway mark, with Taliban officials saying 52% of the Herat section is complete and about 80km of pipe already installed, while equipment transport and road works continue toward a target finish by end-2026. Trade & Finance: The Afghan central bank and AACC discussed expanding banking, trade, and investment links, signaling renewed efforts to deepen financial connectivity. Industry & Jobs: Jalalabad’s summer boom is lifting demand for traditional handicrafts—woven beds, baskets, and wooden goods—supporting local artisans and household needs. Food Security: The Iran war’s spillovers are worsening hunger risks, with the World Food Programme warning that millions—including Afghans—face rising food insecurity as shipping and aid delivery costs climb. Power & Utilities: UN reporting highlights Afghanistan’s electricity access gap, underlining pressure on energy planning as outages and infrastructure constraints persist.

Mining Investment: An Uzbek firm, Timorsna Company, is exploring investment in Afghanistan’s chromite and lead mining and plans a standard mineral processing plant, with the Ministry of Mines and Petroleum asking for specific proposals. Energy & Infrastructure: The Herat phase of the TAPI gas pipeline is moving fast, with 80 km laid so far and nearly half the corridor prepared, while the Herat–Mazar-e-Sharif railway project advances on planning and financing, with Da Afghanistan Bank saying commercial banks are ready to fund the estimated 55 billion afghanis. Industry & Jobs: Balkh’s steel sector is expanding, with seven factories operating and eight more expected soon, but producers warn that power shortages and raw-material access still limit output. Trade & Logistics: WFP says fortified biscuits reached Kabul after a 15,000-km delivery across nine countries, showing how border closures and route disruptions keep reshaping Afghanistan’s food logistics. Disaster Impact: Seasonal flash floods and natural disasters killed 301 people and damaged roads, homes, and over 30,300 acres of farmland, adding pressure to already fragile livelihoods. Human Capital: UNAMA and UN reporting highlight worsening conditions for women and girls, including millions out of school, which directly affects Afghanistan’s future workforce and productivity. Bilateral Support: India reiterated its unchanged commitment to Afghan welfare through humanitarian aid, healthcare/pharmaceutical support, and capacity-building across provinces.

Afghanistan–India Development Ties: India’s UN envoy Parvathaneni Harish told the UNSC that India will keep supporting Afghanistan with humanitarian and development help across all 34 provinces, citing 500+ projects in healthcare, public infrastructure and capacity building. Women’s Rights Under Pressure: UNAMA’s acting head in Afghanistan, Georgette Gagnon, said Taliban morality police detained about 30 women in Herat over dress-code violations, warning the crackdown is causing long-term social and economic damage. Trade & Logistics Shock from Hormuz: A new analysis links the Strait of Hormuz crisis to rising transport costs, disrupted trade corridors and delayed humanitarian deliveries reaching Afghanistan’s markets and lifelines. Mining Policy Signal: The Taliban has identified 600 mining sites in Panjshir, while a separate report details a decree setting rules for gold panning on state land, including a 1/5 share for the administration and environmental restoration requirements. Power & Infrastructure Need: Kabul residents report worsening power outages, underscoring ongoing strain on basic services that affect industry and daily production.

Afghan Mining & Revenue: Taliban officials say they’ve identified nearly 600 mining sites in Panjshir, listing 17 minerals and reporting emerald sales of 19,846 carats worth over $424,000 since the start of the solar year. Counter-Narcotics: Afghan police in Uruzgan and Farah seized 21 kg of illegal drugs and 273 stimulant tablets, destroying heroin-processing labs and arresting five suspects. Trade & Agriculture: An Uzbek firm says it can export 2,000 tonnes of Afghan fresh fruits annually to Uzbekistan, Russia and Europe, with initial shipments routed via Uzbekistan. Exports Boost: Herat’s chamber reports 3,140 metric tons of dried fruit exported in two months, worth $7.6m, as packaging quality improves for wider markets. Regional Logistics Shock: WFP warns the Hormuz crisis is delaying aid deliveries and pushing more people toward hunger, with Afghanistan among the hardest hit. Power & Industry Pressure: Kabul residents complain of worsening power outages, raising risks for businesses and daily production. Food Security Risk: UN-linked reporting says millions face growing hunger as Middle East conflict strains energy, transport and aid supply chains.

Ariana Afghan Airlines: Ariana Afghan Airlines has started daily passenger and cargo flights between Kabul and New Delhi, upgrading from a weekly service to seven flights per week to support trade and connectivity. Power & Infrastructure: Afghanistan’s CASA-1000 transmission project is advancing in phases, linking Sher Khan Bandar to Torkham via multiple provinces and targeting about $60m in annual transit revenue. Energy Security & Sanctions: The US Treasury expanded sanctions on Iran-linked LPG carriers and networks, including an Afghan businessman tied to UAE front companies, tightening pressure on gray-market fuel shipments. Agriculture & Food Supply: Untimely rains damaged Pakistan’s mango and wheat crops, while regional instability and logistics hurdles are weighing on exports—an indirect warning for Afghanistan’s food supply chains. Regional Development Spending: Pakistan’s FY26-27 budget proposes Rs251.68bn for uplift projects across provinces, special areas and merged districts, shaping cross-border economic conditions. Humanitarian Supply: WFP warns hunger is worsening as funding drops and Hormuz disruptions delay aid deliveries, with Afghanistan among the hardest-hit. Connectivity & Trade: Afghanistan is pushing expanded transit cooperation at regional forums, aiming to strengthen Central-South Asia links.

Air Connectivity for Trade: Ariana Afghan Airlines has started daily passenger and cargo flights between Kabul and New Delhi, scaling up from one flight per week last year to seven per week, aiming to speed up market access for Afghan and Indian traders. Power Infrastructure: Afghanistan’s CASA-1000 transmission project is progressing across multiple provinces, targeting 1,300MW of Central Asian hydropower and expected to bring about $60m annually in transit revenue. Regional Business Links: Iran’s consul general in Nangarhar says a joint Afghan-Iranian products exhibition will be held in Jalalabad to connect traders, expand investment, and create jobs. Food Security Pressure: WFP warns the Iran conflict and high energy costs are pushing millions toward acute hunger, including 2.3m in Afghanistan, while aid delivery is being disrupted and funding is stretched. Aid Logistics Strain: WFP says fortified biscuits reached Afghanistan after a long detour through nine countries due to border and Strait of Hormuz closures, with distribution planned for 172,000 schoolchildren. Security & Resources: Taliban governors’ meeting in Kandahar flagged rising unrest in the north tied to mining disputes and growing drug trafficking networks. Anti-Drug Enforcement: Ghazni authorities report arresting a suspected drug smuggler and recovering 44kg of opium during a counter-narcotics operation. Diplomatic Shift: Kuwait has handed over control of Afghanistan’s embassy to a Taliban-appointed senior diplomat, signaling continued regional engagement with Kabul.

Afghan-Iran Trade Push: Iran’s Consul General in Nangarhar says a joint Afghan-Iranian products exhibition will be held in Jalalabad to connect traders, expand market access, and support small business growth. Food Aid Supply Chain Strain: WFP says fortified biscuits for 172,000 Afghan schoolchildren reached Afghanistan after a 15,000-km detour through nine countries due to the Afghanistan–Pakistan border closure and Strait of Hormuz disruptions. Economic Diplomacy: Afghanistan is seeking wider economic cooperation at Russia’s St. Petersburg forum, with talks aimed at boosting trade volume and creating new opportunities for Afghan entrepreneurs. Regional Security Cooperation: Pakistan and Russia signed agreements to curb illegal immigration and narcotics trafficking, while officials also flagged concerns about terrorist camps and drug production linked to Afghanistan. Hunger Warning for Afghanistan: UN/WFP analysis warns the Middle East crisis is pushing millions more into hunger, including an additional 2.3 million in Afghanistan, as food and fuel prices rise and trade routes disrupt. Local Land Governance: Taliban’s justice ministry says 0.029 sq km of state-owned land in Shiberghan has been declared “emirati” and moved toward recovery efforts. Agriculture Losses: Reports say floods destroyed over 70,000 jeribs of farmland in Baghlan, threatening rural production and livelihoods. Humanitarian Eid Support: Qatar Red Crescent’s Eid Al-Adha campaign reached 247,344 beneficiaries across 13 countries, including Afghanistan. Power Reliability Issue: Kabul residents complain of increasing power outages and blackouts in recent days.

Afghanistan Security & Crime: Taliban authorities report a sharp rise in arrests over the past month, targeting armed robberies, theft of gold and phones, car and livestock theft, weapons smuggling, and narcotics-linked networks across provinces including Kabul, Kunduz, Helmand, Khost, and Paktia. Water & Rural Infrastructure: In Logar’s Baraki Barak district, construction has started on a DACAAR-funded 9 million afghanis water supply network—deep well drilling, a 40-cubic-metre reservoir, 16,618 metres of pipelines, and taps for 193 households—aiming to deliver safe drinking water within three months. Regional Connectivity & Trade: Uzbekistan says foreign trade surged in Jan–Apr 2026, with China as the top partner and fast growth also linked to Afghanistan; meanwhile, the Termez Dialogue highlights plans for Afghanistan-linked transit, including the Afghan-Trans railway feasibility work. Cross-Border Security Cooperation: Pakistan and Russia signed SCO-linked agreements to curb illegal immigration and expand counter-narcotics cooperation, while talks with Tajikistan focused on terrorist camps and drug production concerns in Afghanistan. Food Security Shock: UN/WFP warns the Iran conflict is pushing millions toward hunger, including an added 2.3 million in Afghanistan as energy and food prices rise and aid faces funding shortfalls.

Regional Connectivity & Rail: At the second Termez Dialogue in Tashkent, Uzbekistan pushed a faster track for Afghanistan-linked transit, saying the Afghan-Trans railway feasibility study is in an active phase and should finish by year-end, with talks also highlighting how stability in Afghanistan could open the shortest route to seaports and expand trade deals worth about $5 billion since late 2025. Agriculture Shock in Afghanistan: Floods in Baghlan have destroyed over 70,000 jeribs of farmland, including tens of thousands of rain-fed and irrigated plots, dealing a direct blow to rural production and farmer incomes. Power Reliability in Kabul: Kabul residents report worsening electricity outages, with some households getting only around three hours of power daily, raising concerns for industry, investment, and daily economic activity. Food Security Pressure: The UN World Food Programme warns the Middle East conflict and Strait of Hormuz disruptions are driving fuel and transport costs up, pushing millions toward hunger; it flags Afghanistan as facing severe food insecurity risks for millions, with additional people at risk if trade and energy disruptions persist. Sanctions & Energy Trade: The U.S. Treasury imposed new sanctions on an Iranian-linked LPG smuggling and shadow-banking network, naming an Afghan national among those accused of helping move disguised fuel shipments across South and East Asia.

Food Security Shock: The UN World Food Programme says the West Asia conflict is pushing millions toward hunger as oil prices stay high, shipping routes are disrupted, and aid funding falls—Afghanistan is flagged with 17.4 million people affected and 2.3 million more at risk if disruptions persist. Water & Agriculture Pressure: UNAMA reports more than half of Afghans are hit by drought and water scarcity, with failing irrigation, shrinking rivers, and extreme weather damaging crops and livelihoods. Aid Supply Strain: WFP Acting Executive Director Carl Skau says shortages are already reaching clinics, including cases near Jalalabad where mothers are leaving with visibly malnourished children because nutrition supplies ran out. Health Sector Coordination: Afghanistan’s Public Health Ministry met WHO to strengthen health programmes, including polio lab operations and new initiatives. Connectivity & Trade: Afghanistan is pushing for expanded transit cooperation at the Termez dialogue as regional partners discuss trade and connectivity. Environment Day Focus: UNAMA marks World Environment Day by linking deforestation, overgrazing, and unregulated mining to biodiversity loss and worsening public health.

Agribusiness Shock: Floods in Baghlan have destroyed over 70,000 jeribs of farmland, wiping out rain-fed and irrigated plots and hitting farmers’ investments hard. Power & Industry Risk: Kabul residents report worsening, frequent power outages that disrupt internet, water access, education, and work—raising costs for households and businesses. Mining & Trade Push: Afghanistan’s industry and commerce officials used the Termez Dialogue to stress Kabul’s role as a bridge for Central and South Asia, highlighting the Afghan-Trans rail project to boost trade and transit. Energy Dependence: UNDP says Afghanistan imports about 80% of its electricity, underscoring how grid instability can ripple into production and services. Security to Supply Chains: Reports also point to regional instability affecting movement and commerce, while Afghanistan’s connectivity agenda keeps focusing on reducing transit barriers for traders. Women in Energy Policy: UN Special Rapporteur Richard Bennett praised Samira Nawa’s appointment to Denmark’s climate and energy cabinet as a signal for inclusive leadership.

Regional Connectivity: Afghanistan’s Minister of Industry and Commerce Nooruddin Azizi used the Termez Dialogue to push Afghanistan as a bridge for Central and South Asia, highlighting the Trans-Afghan Railway and trade/transit links. Standards & Trade: Afghanistan Standards and Quality Authority says over 34 tonnes of substandard construction and electrical materials were rejected and sent back at Islam Qala, including batteries and rebar. Cross-Border Logistics: Afghanistan and Uzbekistan agreed new steps to ease transit and trade, with talks focused on customs facilitation, cargo movement, and obstacles for Afghan exporters. Energy & Infrastructure: Tajikistan’s Rogun hydropower project is entering a decisive phase, with tunnels, diversion works and major turbine construction advancing toward a planned mega-dam. Agriculture & Environment: UNDP warns climate shocks are worsening in Afghanistan, while separate reporting notes deforestation has slowed but forest cover remains very low. Security & Labor Risks: Afghanistan condemned the killing of three Afghan migrants burned alive in Italy, where prosecutors say seasonal agricultural workers were targeted; the case spotlights exploitation risks in supply chains. Market Disruption: Pakistan’s border closures with Afghanistan are reported to be costing Pakistan’s external trade sector about $1.4bn, disrupting transport and exports.

Jobs & Wages: Kabul’s daily wage laborers are calling for more work as unemployment worsens, with pay too low to cover rent and basic services, while the WFP says access to wage work has fallen to nearly two days per week. Tourism & Agriculture Protection: Nuristan residents say Eid tourism is rising but urge visitors to avoid gathering in agricultural fields, protect cleanliness, and stop damage to crops and farmland. Food & Weather Outlook: FAO forecasts June rainfall in Afghanistan will be near normal overall, but warns some northeastern areas could see heavy rain, flash floods, and hail that may hurt crops, alongside hotter conditions that raise water demand. Pest Threat to Farming: In Ghor’s Tulak District, locusts and “kafshak” insects have damaged thousands of hectares, and farmers warn authorities have not acted fast enough to stop further losses. Trade & Transit: Afghanistan’s trade with Central Asia jumped in 2025, with imports up 43% and exports up 77%, as Hairatan port operations run around the clock amid disruptions elsewhere. Regional Energy Cooperation: Tajikistan is pushing renewable energy and regional electricity exports to strengthen energy security and support industry as glacier melt and seasonal river-flow risks grow. Women’s Education & Economy: UNICEF Innocenti links restrictions on girls’ secondary education to weaker human capital, projecting fewer employable health workers and teachers and long-term strain on public services. Industry & Labor Safety Abroad: Reports from Italy highlight exploitation in agricultural labor networks, after four migrant workers (including Afghans) were killed in a vehicle fire in Calabria—an issue that also affects Afghanistan-linked workers.