AGP Executive Report

Afghanistan’s Investment & Stability Lens: An INSS guest lecture framed Afghanistan as a “prism of regional stability,” highlighting how de facto governance, border security, and transactional engagement by regional and global powers shape South Asia’s stability and even energy/trade dependencies. Infrastructure & Logistics Cooperation: Afghanistan’s Ministry of Transport met a World Bank delegation in Doha to discuss joint work on infrastructure, public transport, logistics corridors, and public-private partnerships. Energy & Industry Deals: Saudi firms signed major oil and gas agreements with Afghanistan, with one report pointing to a potential $10bn Afghan pipeline pathway—an industrial boost if financing and security hold. Mining Safety Alert: Afghan authorities reported a fatal mining accident with four deaths, underscoring ongoing risks for the country’s extractives sector. Trade & Sanctions Pressure (Regional): Tougher US sanctions on Iran are raising hurdles for exporters across Central Asia and beyond, with knock-on effects for regional shipping, insurance, and payments that can also influence Afghanistan-linked trade routes. Humanitarian/Protection Risk: A global monitor reported cluster munitions caused at least 1,063 casualties in 2025, including in Afghanistan—another reminder of the cost of conflict on civilian livelihoods.

Energy & Industry Dealmaking: Saudi Delta Energy Group signed landmark oil and gas agreements with Afghanistan’s Ministry of Mines and Petroleum, including exploration in Herat’s Kushk-Tirpul area, a natural gas utilization study, and plans for a proposed 435-mile CentGas pipeline that could require about $10B over the next decade—an industrial boost tied to the “Corridor of Prosperity.” Industrialisation Strategy: A new analysis highlights how the Taliban is pushing industrialisation as economic statecraft, aiming for domestic manufacturing and import substitution via tax incentives and industrial parks, while facing constraints like electricity shortages, weak infrastructure, and limited investment access. Infrastructure & Education: Kabul Polytechnic University announced a new faculty of aerospace engineering, signaling a push toward higher technical capacity. Transport & Logistics Cooperation: Qatar’s Ministry of Transport met the World Bank to discuss infrastructure, public transport, logistics corridors, and PPP financing—key inputs for trade and supply chains. Humanitarian & Safety Risks: A monitor report says cluster munitions caused at least 1,063 casualties in 2025, with Afghanistan among affected countries, and civilians making up 87% of victims—underscoring ongoing contamination risks for communities and workers.

Energy & Investment: Afghanistan signed a major oil-and-gas exploration and extraction contract with Saudi Delta Energy International for the Kushk–Tirpul basin, with an initial $200m investment and plans covering multiple gas blocks, plus related deals for Amu Darya basin services and a flexible production facility. Agribusiness & Exports: Kandahar golden raisin producers say the India route is closed, pushing them to seek air-corridor access to international markets as prices fall. Higher Education & Skills: The Islamic Emirate says new master’s and PhD programmes and faculties are being prepared, including AI-related fields, with priority for Afghan lecturers. Rural Infrastructure: Rural development updates highlight hundreds of water-supply networks and rural roads/bridges/irrigation works completed or underway, aiming to expand clean drinking water and basic services. Humanitarian & Rights: UN and human-rights updates warn of worsening crises and call for timely assistance and renewed negotiations amid rising global conflict pressures. Security & Trade Links: Reports also flag ongoing Pakistan-Afghanistan friction tied to cross-border militancy concerns, with calls for stronger action to protect stability.

Energy & Mining Investment: Saudi Delta Energy International signed a 25-year $200M oil and gas exploration and extraction contract with Afghanistan’s Ministry of Mines and Petroleum for the Kushk–Tirpul field in Herat, covering about 22,000 sq km, with the company also weighing a much larger multi-year energy program. Gas-to-Industry Infrastructure: Delta also agreed on a gas utilization study for Herat (including the Herat Industrial Park) and a framework for a proposed 700-km “CentGas” pipeline corridor toward Kandahar, aiming to support industry and power needs. Oilfield Services in the North: Afghanistan signed contracts with Russia’s TNG company for supervision/consultancy in the Amu Darya basin and for a flexible production facility at the Zamrad Sai block, with an eight-month build timeline and processing capacity cited at 2,000 tons of oil per day. Rural Water & Roads Build-Out: The Ministry of Rural Rehabilitation and Development reported commissioning 290 rural water supply networks (over 1.2B Afghanis) benefiting 590,000 residents, plus major rural road, bridge, irrigation and retaining-wall projects, while more infrastructure is underway. Higher Education Expansion: The Islamic Emirate said new master’s and PhD programmes and faculties are being prepared, including fields tied to modern needs like agriculture, health, technology and AI, alongside plans to add professors and issue certificates.

Domestic Production Push: Afghanistan’s Ministry of Industry and Commerce opened a three-day “Band-e-Amir” domestic products exhibition in Bamiyan with 100 booths for farmers, livestock breeders, and local entrepreneurs, aiming to boost homegrown agriculture, crafts, and manufactured goods while attracting investment and strengthening economic self-sufficiency. Rural Infrastructure & Jobs: Kabul says it has launched 3,229 rural development and essential infrastructure projects worth $87 million across 23 of 34 provinces, including roads, irrigation canals, bridges, and welfare works—expected to create local employment and support agriculture. Mining Safety Warning: A coal mine accident in Baghlan killed four men after gas asphyxiation, with officials saying the site “did not meet standards,” highlighting ongoing weak regulation and frequent fatalities in Afghanistan’s mining sector. Trade & Market Disruption: In Herat’s Jebrail, Taliban authorities reportedly closed around 100 shops over a land ownership dispute, with three residents arrested—showing how property conflicts can quickly disrupt local commerce. Food Security Pressure: The UN special rapporteur warns Taliban restrictions and deepening poverty and hunger are harming Afghan children’s development, with risks including child labor and recruitment.

Humanitarian Crisis: UN expert Richard Bennett warns Taliban restrictions and hunger are harming nearly every aspect of Afghan children’s lives, with risks including child labor, forced/child marriage, and education collapse. Mining Safety: Four miners died of gas asphyxiation in a coal mine in Baghlan after officials said the site failed safety standards, highlighting how poorly regulated mining remains deadly. Local Commerce: Taliban authorities reportedly closed around 100 shops in Herat’s Jebrail market over a land ownership dispute, with arrests tied to the competing claims. Rural Infrastructure Push: Afghanistan launched 3,229 development projects worth $87m across 23 provinces, including roads, irrigation, bridges and retaining walls. Agriculture Under Pressure: Zabul fig growers report disease and closed trade routes are cutting harvests and incomes, while Nimroz farmers say drought and falling groundwater are drying orchards and forcing people to abandon farming. Health Services: Bangladesh Islamic Center doctors, with the Afghan Red Crescent, are providing free cleft lip and palate surgeries for 120 children in Kabul. Energy/Trade Shock: UN and analysts link food insecurity to wider supply disruptions, including higher fertilizer and fuel costs tied to regional conflict.

Cultural Heritage Under Strain: Historic sites in Afghanistan’s Ghazni province—like Bala Hissar, the Ghaznain fortress and the old city—are deteriorating due to disasters, conflict damage and poor restoration that allegedly ignored traditional building methods. Agri & Water Security: Nimroz farmers report severe losses as drought and falling groundwater dry orchards and fields, pushing families to abandon farming or seek other work. Energy & Market Stability: Afghanistan’s Oil and Gas Corporation says fuel prices and supply are sensitive to regional shocks, including disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz, while imports continue through many companies and local commissions monitor hoarding. Food Security: WFP warns acute hunger is rising, with nearly 14 million Afghans facing acute hunger and funding cuts limiting assistance to a fraction of those in need. Trade & Industry Linkages: Afghanistan-US relations and broader economic cooperation remain on the agenda as Kabul discusses expanding ties, while reports also highlight the need to boost domestic production. Humanitarian Aid Pressure: The Islamic Emirate says it distributed 12.6 billion afghanis in cash assistance to 650,000 vulnerable people, as aid restrictions continue to disrupt programs. Security & Supply Chains: Pakistan, US and Sri Lanka report a major methamphetamine bust tied to an Afghan trafficking network, with seizures at Karachi and Colombo ports.

Energy & Fuel Markets: Afghanistan’s Oil and Gas Corporation says fuel prices are being shaped by import dependence and regional shocks, noting disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and continued supply flows from Iran, Turkmenistan, Russia and others. Humanitarian & Food Security: WFP warns acute hunger is worsening, with nearly 14 million Afghans facing acute hunger as funding cuts limit food aid to just one in nine. Women’s Economic Role: Former President Hamid Karzai renews calls to reopen schools for girls and return women to work, arguing it’s essential for Afghanistan’s economy, engineering, health and governance. Mining & Investment Pushback: The Taliban’s pitch for US-backed mining investment is met with US rejection, with Washington saying it won’t partner on critical minerals. Trade & Connectivity: India and Afghanistan discuss trade reset steps including customs, banking, visas and ports to strengthen bilateral commerce. Social Support: The Islamic Emirate reports distributing 12.6 billion afghanis in cash assistance to 650,000 vulnerable people, alongside food and non-food aid. Security & Disruption Risks: Reports highlight how conflict and instability keep trade routes under pressure, feeding higher food prices and unemployment.

Afghanistan Mining & Investment: The Taliban is pitching the US on investment to develop Afghanistan’s estimated $1T mineral wealth, including mining, infrastructure, agriculture and trade—but Washington has signaled it won’t work with the Taliban on critical minerals, raising questions about who would control and profit from any future projects. Regional Trade & Connectivity: Calls are growing to reopen Afghanistan–Pakistan trade routes after the suspension of crossings hit commerce and livelihoods, with experts urging that trade be kept separate from security tensions and pushing for practical connectivity solutions. SCO Economic Push: At the Bishkek SCO summit, leaders backed broader cooperation spanning transport, logistics, energy and technology—an angle that matters for Afghanistan’s industry future as regional corridors and supply chains get prioritized. Humanitarian Pressure: UN reporting says Taliban restrictions suspended 18 aid programs in Afghanistan in one month, a reminder that industrial recovery depends on stable basic services and supply conditions.

Afghanistan–Pakistan Trade: A Peshawar conference says Pakistan’s trade losses after suspending crossings with Afghanistan are already topping $1bn, urging the immediate reopening of routes like Torkham and keeping commerce separate from security tensions. Humanitarian Access: The UN reports Taliban restrictions temporarily suspended 18 aid programs in July, with interference in approvals and aid delivery plus limits on women’s participation continuing to disrupt assistance nationwide. Mining & Investment: The US State Department rejects Taliban calls for investment in Afghanistan’s mineral sector, warning it would only strengthen the movement; the Taliban has pitched access to deposits worth up to $1tn. Regional Industry & Energy: Turkmenistan’s leadership highlights the TAPI gas pipeline as a jobs and energy project for Afghanistan and a wider market, while SCO talks in Bishkek keep connectivity and security on the agenda. Construction: Work has begun on Kabul’s B4 residential complexes, signaling continued urban development activity.

Afghanistan Industry & Trade: Deputy Prime Minister Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar says Afghanistan’s independence depends on boosting domestic production, launching infrastructure, and strengthening science—highlighting the rehabilitation of the Sana-e-Sabz Industrial Park in Kabul, which spans 8,200 jeribs, hosts 120 factories, and aims to spur hundreds more and thousands of jobs, including a planned Islamic Culture Printing and Publishing Production Center to cut paper imports. Regional Logistics & Food Security: A new analysis warns that border closures disrupting the Pak–Afghan trade corridor are hitting perishable supply chains, driving inflation and food insecurity, with losses running into billions and thousands of containers stuck at crossings. SCO Connectivity Push: Uzbekistan says the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation is shifting from principles to practical economic integration—security coordination, digital development, and cross-border connectivity—while Afghanistan-focused reconstruction and connectivity proposals remain on the agenda. Humanitarian Cost of War: Save the Children reports the Iran-war oil shock is forcing aid groups to spend more to reach fewer children, with Afghanistan among the affected operations. Cultural & Craft Economy: Afghan Kazakhs held a handicrafts and carpet-weaving exhibition in Balkh, calling for stronger government support to preserve traditional arts and expand market reach.

Industrial Parks & Self-Reliance: In Kabul, Deputy Prime Minister for Economic Affairs Mullah Abdul Ghani Baradar backed the rehabilitation of the Sana-e-Sabz Industrial Park and the revised “Green Industries” plan, saying Afghanistan can cut import dependence by expanding domestic production, infrastructure, and scientific capacity; the park spans 8,200 jeribs, hosts 120 factories, and is tied to about $800m in investment, with plans for an Islamic Culture Printing and Publishing Production Center to boost local paper and publishing. Counternarcotics & Livelihoods: Japan and UNODC launched a $9.4m, two-year programme (2026-2028) in five Afghan provinces to support about 8,000 former poppy-growing households with alternative livelihoods, while also funding prevention and treatment services for tens of thousands. Rural Market Recovery: Five years after the U.S. pullout, rural markets in places like Logar Province are reopening as security improves and reconstruction continues, though returning migrants and unemployment remain pressure points. Humanitarian Access Constraints: The UN reported that restrictions halted 18 humanitarian programmes in Afghanistan in July, with gender-related limits still disrupting women’s participation and access to aid services. Energy & Industry Linkages: A report on Turkmenistan’s Caspian offshore gas expansion highlights continued regional energy investment momentum that can shape supply chains and industrial inputs across Central Asia. Deportations & Policy Tension: Germany is reportedly seeking Taliban help to facilitate deportations of Afghans back to Afghanistan, a move that raises major political and human-rights questions around recognition and responsibility.

Afghanistan Mining & Investment: The U.S. State Department rejected Taliban requests for investment in Afghanistan’s mineral sector, saying Washington won’t engage with the group and warns mining finance could strengthen repressive policies; the Taliban, meanwhile, continues pitching access to Afghanistan’s estimated $1T mineral wealth. Housing & Construction: Kabul’s “Sulh” Housing Project broke ground on B4 residential complexes in the Fifth Macroryan area to ease the city’s housing shortage, with officials citing population growth and delayed projects from the previous administration. Trade Corridors & Industry: A new report says Afghanistan’s trade is shifting fast away from Pakistan after border closures and clashes, with Kabul pushing alternative routes through Central Asia and Iran—changing where agricultural and other goods move. Regional Connectivity Policy: At the SCO Bishkek summit, leaders adopted the Bishkek Declaration, stressing the bloc is not a military alliance while outlining cooperation areas including trade facilitation, transport, energy, and the digital economy. EU Support for Livelihoods: The EU approved €10m for the Aga Khan Foundation’s BRIDGE program in Afghanistan, targeting climate-resilient agriculture and value chains alongside jobs and entrepreneurship across 10 provinces.

Kabul Housing & Construction: Work has started on the B4 residential complexes under the “Sulh” Housing Project in Kabul’s Fifth Macroryan area, aimed at easing the city’s housing shortage amid population growth and weak public services, with officials also pointing to efforts to complete delayed projects from the previous administration. Trade Facilitation: India and Afghanistan’s Joint Working Group reviewed measures to strengthen bilateral trade and economic cooperation, focusing on customs and data-sharing, visa facilitation for Afghan traders, banking cooperation, and regulatory coordination for pharmaceuticals and agriculture, alongside investment promotion and cargo connectivity. EU Development Finance: The EU allocated €10 million to the Aga Khan Foundation for Afghanistan’s BRIDGE program (36 months) targeting climate resilience and agricultural livelihoods, economic growth and employment, and community resilience for displaced people, returnees, women, and youth across 10 provinces. Mining & Investment Push: Taliban officials renewed calls for foreign investment tied to Afghanistan’s reported $1 trillion mineral wealth, including interest from the US, while questions remain over who controls mining contracts and how revenues are managed. Regional Disruption & Risk: Nepal’s Himalayan floods—linked to glacier and bedrock collapse—highlight cascading disaster risks that can also affect hydropower and transport routes, a lesson relevant for Afghanistan’s infrastructure planning and resilience efforts. Security & Illicit Trade: US and Sri Lankan anti-narcotics authorities seized 463 kg of crystal meth in Colombo from a shipping container linked to a Pakistani network, underscoring ongoing regional logistics risks for trade corridors.

Afghanistan Investment & Mining: The Taliban is again pitching Washington on a return of diplomats and money, offering access to Afghanistan’s estimated $1 trillion mineral wealth and infrastructure projects—while the US keeps the embassy closed and maintains strict travel and sanctions signals. Regional Trade & Connectivity: Pakistan and Uzbekistan are targeting $2bn in bilateral trade and expect expanded air links to up to nine flights per week by Oct 2026, with the Uzbekistan-Afghanistan-Pakistan railway flagged as a potential game-changer. Border & Logistics Finance: The ADB approved a $400m BUILD facility to modernize CAREC border crossings, aiming to cut delays and logistics costs and boost trade in agriculture and transport services. Water, Security, and Afghanistan Spillover: At the SCO summit in Bishkek, Pakistan’s PM Shehbaz stressed water must never be weaponized and said terrorism from Afghan territory must end for connectivity to take root. Afghanistan Economy Watch: Reports say Afghanistan is seeking a US rethink amid sanctions and stalled projects, as economic recovery signals remain fragile. Humanitarian Pressure: ICRC warns Afghanistan is being overlooked despite severe humanitarian needs, keeping relief and basic services high on the agenda.

Afghanistan Banking Confidence: Afghanistan Banks Association says public deposits in the banking system have climbed to nearly $3 billion, citing rising trust after fears of bank failures. Da Afghanistan Bank says it is improving services and regularly meets commercial banks to simplify procedures and expand standard services for citizens. SCO Economic & Financial Cooperation: At the Bishkek SCO summit, leaders signed the Bishkek Declaration, backing an open multilateral trading system and pushing financial cooperation via the SCO Interbank Consortium, including steps to connect Iran’s designated bank. Regional Water & Industry Risk: Pakistan PM Shehbaz Sharif told the SCO that water is the region’s “lifeblood” and must never be weaponised, stressing treaty obligations—an issue with direct knock-on effects for agriculture and hydropower planning. Afghanistan Investment Push: Reports say Afghanistan’s foreign minister is seeking US investment and sanctions relief, pitching mining, infrastructure, agriculture and trade as priority sectors after years of stalled projects. Cyber Threats to Afghan Tech: Researchers warn hackers are targeting developers in Afghanistan and elsewhere with fake recruiter interviews and trojanized coding tests delivering cross-platform malware. Data Resilience for Afghan Businesses: Mindware appointed Veeam value-added distributor across the Middle East, Pakistan and Afghanistan, aiming to help enterprises recover quickly from ransomware and protect data used for cloud and AI.