AGP Executive Report

Persian-language economic push: Iran is floating a “union” of Persian-speaking states (Iran, Afghanistan, Tajikistan) to deepen cultural and trade ties, with Tehran urging practical talks via Tajikistan. Trade facilitation with Kabul: Iran’s president ordered removal of barriers to expand economic and transit cooperation with Afghanistan, while chambers discussed a joint private-sector investment fund. Agriculture and industry cooperation: Afghanistan and Belarus held a second joint economic and trade meeting in Minsk, focusing on farm tech transfer, fertilizer, dairy/food processing, machinery assembly, and joint investment. Beekeeping outlook in Nangarhar: Local beekeepers report better honey production thanks to rainfall and flowering, but say low-quality and counterfeit imports are squeezing profits. Humanitarian operations: Qatar Red Crescent highlights a shift toward preparedness and partnerships to respond faster to disasters and crises. Cyber risk for Afghan targets: Researchers say Pakistan-linked Transparent Tribe (APT36) is using updated malware tools to spy on high-value targets in Afghanistan. Infrastructure and logistics corridor talk: A trans-Afghan transport corridor is being pitched as a way to diversify cargo routes and reduce bottlenecks.

Afghanistan–Iran Trade Push: Iran’s President Masoud Pezeshkian ordered ministries to remove barriers to trade and transit with Afghanistan, aiming to speed customs, reduce border delays, and expand cooperation beyond current levels. Afghanistan–Belarus Business Links: A second Afghanistan-Belarus joint economic meeting in Minsk focused on agriculture, livestock, fertilizer, dairy/food processing, machinery assembly, and creating banking and money-transfer mechanisms for joint investment. Security & Industry Skills: Taliban Interior Minister Khalifa Sirajuddin Haqqani told university students in Khost they are key to Afghanistan’s future military, industrial, commercial, and economic self-sufficiency—urging education and research over politics in campuses. Cyber Threats: Researchers report Pakistan’s “Transparent Tribe” (APT36) using updated tools to target high-value organizations in Afghanistan, with malware campaigns also seen against India. Transport & Connectivity Idea: An expert argues a Trans-Afghan rail/highway corridor could diversify cargo routes and reduce risks from chokepoints, supporting trade in hydrocarbons, food, and machinery. Roads Still a Bottleneck: Residents in Herat and Badghis say major routes remain unpaved, with long delays and safety risks until key bridge and road works resume.

Citizenship Processing Shift: India’s Home Affairs moved pending Citizenship Amendment Act (CAA) cases from empowered central panels to district Collectors in eight States and UTs, streamlining decisions for applicants from Pakistan, Afghanistan and Bangladesh who entered before Dec 31, 2014. Afghanistan Economic Independence: A piece revisits King Amanullah Khan’s push for modern taxation, budgeting, currency reforms and domestic production after independence—an early blueprint for Afghanistan’s economic self-reliance. Industry & Trade Moves: India–Afghanistan ties are entering a “new phase” with more Afghan ministry delegations to India and India upgrading its Kabul technical mission to an embassy-level setup, focused on humanitarian and development cooperation. Food & Agriculture Pressure: Pakistan allowed export of 108,000MT of sugar imported last year, a policy that could lift local prices—relevant for regional food-industry planning. Energy Logistics: Kazakhstan stockpiled 4.1m tonnes of coal for the heating season and is using digital tracking to manage supply to power plants and households.

Afghanistan-India Diplomacy: India says ties with the Islamic Emirate have entered a “new phase,” with more Afghan ministry delegations to India and an upgrade of India’s Kabul mission to embassy status, focused on humanitarian and development cooperation. Industrial Growth: Balkh’s new $30m automated steel rod factory is completed and expected to start within a month, aiming to boost domestic steel output and cut reliance on imports. Energy & Power Infrastructure: Five power grid expansion projects have been launched in eastern Afghanistan, signaling continued work on transmission capacity. Women & Labor Shock: Reports highlight how Taliban restrictions on women’s employment and education are pushing many women into informal, low-paid work, a structural hit to skills and economic productivity. Public Health & Nutrition: Afghan doctors warn that false breastfeeding beliefs are harming mothers and newborns, urging families to support proper feeding and seek medical care. Food Security Pressure: WFP warns of worsening food crisis conditions, with hunger hotspots listing Afghanistan among the “very high concern” countries. Security & Stability Context: A wider review marks five years since Kabul’s fall, pointing to reduced international visibility, aid cuts, sanctions, and tighter isolation that have made economic and social decline harder to track.

Afghanistan Economy & Jobs: The ILO says women’s labour force participation in Afghanistan has dropped to just 5.1% in 2026, with employment gains benefiting men only, deepening gender gaps and weakening the labour market. Industry & Investment: Afghanistan’s Chamber of Commerce and Investment and the Chamber of Industries and Mines signed an MoU to create a joint-stock company that pools private capital to finance major projects across industry, mining (including oil), infrastructure and construction. Energy & Trade Diplomacy: Iran’s foreign ministry says it has not yet decided on formally recognizing the Islamic Emirate, but will keep expanding economic and trade engagement with Kabul. Regional Connectivity: FPCCI and ECO-CCI leaders urged practical action to unlock trade and investment across the ECO region, pushing connectivity, customs simplification, and joint production in agriculture/food processing, textiles, minerals, energy, engineering and IT. Food & Agriculture Infrastructure: A flour mill was inaugurated in Balkh province, signaling continued investment in local processing capacity. Humanitarian & Food Security: WFP warns of worsening food crisis conditions in Afghanistan, with reports that most malnourished women and children are still denied treatment. Security & Community Impact: A Kabul school blast injured 42 children, raising fresh concerns in the Hazara community about safety and protection.

Women in the workforce: The ILO says Afghanistan’s female labour force participation has dropped to just 5.1% in 2026, with employment gains benefiting men while women face severe exclusion and widening gender gaps. Investment vehicle for industry: Afghanistan’s Chamber of Commerce and Investment and the Chamber of Industries and Mines signed an MoU to create a joint-stock company that pools private capital to finance major projects in industry, mining (including oil), infrastructure and construction. Food security pressure: WFP warns hunger is worsening, saying one in three Afghans faces hunger and that funding shortfalls now limit aid to only one in seven malnourished women and children as transport costs surge. Urban services risk: Kabul residents complain wastewater is still handled through absorption wells and makeshift drainage, raising pollution and health concerns and calling for a standard sewage system. Local production push: A new flour mill in Balkh has started operations with 280 tons/day capacity and 100 jobs, as authorities cite efforts to support wheat supply and reduce import and smuggling pressures. Construction activity: Afghan authorities launched 14 development projects in Baghlan, including roads, parks and water canals, funded by UNOPS and aimed at jobs and public services.

Afghanistan–India Trade Push: Kabul’s charge d’affaires Noor Ahmed Noor used the Taliban’s 5th “Victory Day” reception in New Delhi to argue Afghanistan’s geography should be a bridge for connectivity, and to call for stronger political trust and economic partnership with India, including trade, transit, investment and energy cooperation. Private Sector & Rule of Law Focus: Noor said Afghanistan is shifting from managing war to strengthening the rule of law, expanding diplomatic and economic relations, and supporting the private sector as a way to unlock regional economic projects. Russia Eyes Afghan Markets: A Russian trade delegation arrived in Kabul to explore investment and exports, with talks covering dried fruits, pharmaceuticals, construction, oil and gas, and healthcare—highlighting potential new routes for Afghan dried fruit to Russia. Agriculture & Livestock Diplomacy: Afghanistan sent a 13-member delegation to Belarus for the second meeting of the Joint Commission on Economic and Trade Cooperation, led by the agriculture minister, to deepen trade and create conditions for business links. Health Campaign: The Islamic Emirate launched a four-day polio vaccination drive targeting 2.58 million children across five provinces, including Kabul and Nangarhar. Local Infrastructure Pressure: Baghlan residents renewed calls to complete a stalled 200-bed hospital project in Pul-e-Khumri, saying lack of space and facilities is hurting patients and attendants.

Trade & Investment: Russian traders have arrived in Kabul to explore deals across dried fruits, pharmaceuticals, construction, oil and gas, and healthcare, with talks focused on boosting exports to Russia. Agriculture & Food Industry: Afghanistan’s first international agriculture and livestock exhibition in Kabul drew 100+ companies and produced 70+ agreements worth $200M+ to expand farming and livestock trade. Public Health: The Ministry of Public Health launched a four-day polio drive targeting 2.58 million children in Nangarhar, Kunar, Kabul, Herat and Farah. Healthcare & Reconstruction: A 50-bed hospital worth about $1m was inaugurated in Khost, built by a Turkish businessman, with officials urging better service quality and self-reliance. Energy & Logistics: Iran and Tajikistan have reportedly finalized a framework for long-term Iranian fuel exports, while a month earlier they agreed on a logistics corridor through Afghanistan. Infrastructure & Local Industry: In Ghor, residents are disputing how mining revenue from a lead-zinc site is being used, saying it should repair local roads instead of funding a Kandahar-Uruzgan road. Security & Governance: Panjshir’s governor claims the province is “safe and peaceful,” denies armed opposition, and says 600+ development projects have been implemented. Agriculture Support: FAO is backing 4,000 vulnerable farming families to protect livelihoods and sustain food production. Cybersecurity: APT36-linked activity has been linked to malware targeting Afghan telecom and critical infrastructure, including PATCHCORD, SHEETCORD and HACKERAI. Regional Connectivity: Afghanistan’s Industry and Commerce Minister Nooruddin Azizi pushed new transit corridors and investment ties with Uzbekistan and China at a trade forum in Termez.

US-Taliban Diplomacy Push: Afghanistan’s FM Amir Khan Muttaqi urged Washington to reopen its Kabul embassy and invest in mines, dams and roads, saying the war chapter is over and a new “mutual respect” relationship is needed. Trade & Transit for Industry: Afghanistan’s industry chief Nooruddin Azizi called for new transit corridors with Central Asia and China, pitching investment in mining, agriculture processing, energy and manufacturing via Uzbekistan. Agriculture Deal-Making: Kabul’s Afghanistan International Agriculture and Livestock Exhibition ended with 74 cooperation agreements worth over $200M aimed at boosting agricultural exports, including mechanized production and processing. Regional Border Friction: Iran’s FM Araghchi said border issues with Afghanistan should be handled locally and backed visa facilitation, framing neighbors as key economic opportunities under sanctions. Natural Disasters Hitting Livelihoods: UN OCHA reported 97,320 people affected by 2026 disasters across all 34 provinces, with floods and flash floods damaging homes, farms, roads and water systems. Public Health & Vaccines: Nangarhar launched a polio campaign targeting nearly 1 million children under five with injectable and oral doses. Fuel Price Protests: Jamaat-e-Islami staged nationwide sit-ins in Pakistan over inflation and petroleum levy, demanding petrol cuts and levy withdrawal. Security Disruptions: A Quetta roadside IED killed two laborers and injured three, while a former Afghan commander was shot dead in Quetta—signals of instability around construction and cross-border communities. Afghan Economic Reality Check: Mujahid said sanctions and obstacles still block economic goals, with education also facing “shortcomings,” urging reliance on domestic capacity.

Trade & Investment: Afghanistan’s Industry and Commerce Minister Nooruddin Azizi says Kabul is ready to attract Uzbek and Chinese investment and wants new transit corridors to move Afghan exports to China via Uzbekistan, highlighting opportunities in mining, agriculture, processing industries, energy, machinery and manufacturing. Border Management: Iran’s Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi urged that Iran-Afghanistan border issues be handled at the provincial/local level, including visa facilitation for Afghans, to avoid slow capital-to-capital negotiations. Disaster Impact on Industry & Food Supply: UN OCHA reports natural disasters in Afghanistan have affected about 92,000 people this year, damaging homes and agricultural land and disrupting roads, irrigation and local markets—risks that can deepen vulnerability for farming communities. Security & Supply Chains: Afghan counter-narcotics police arrested 46 suspected drug smugglers across nine provinces and seized opium and stimulant tablets, as the government pushes to curb trafficking and shift livelihoods. Women’s Livelihoods: A beekeeping program in Herat trains women as a legal income alternative to opium, supporting pollination and local food security while creating revenue from honey and beeswax.

Taliban Anniversary & Economy: As Afghanistan marks five years since the Taliban returned to power, Kabul residents say security is better but jobs and schools—especially for girls—remain the biggest gaps, with officials also pushing for renewed foreign engagement to revive investment. Women’s Rights & Education: BBC interviews show women describing daily life as “unrecognisable,” citing bans on girls’ secondary education, limits on movement, and fears of reprisals—while the UN continues to flag “gender apartheid” impacts. Diplomacy for Investment: Afghan Foreign Minister Amir Khan Muttaqi urged the U.S. to reopen its embassy and invest in minerals, dams, and roads, while the Taliban reiterated it does not want U.S. troops back. Security & Cross-Border Terror: A UN report warns the Afghan-Taliban-backed TTP threat to Pakistan persists, and another UN filing implicates the Balochistan Liberation Army in sharing logistics and advanced equipment. Industry & Trade Signals: Afghanistan’s economy coverage highlights growth in manufacturing and trade, plus new momentum in agriculture cooperation with Iran and rising numbers of women with business licences. Health Sector Push: The health ministry’s five-year strategy aims to standardize care and cut maternal and newborn deaths, alongside steps toward medicine self-sufficiency.

Afghanistan Economy Watch: Afghanistan’s economy over the past five years saw trade reach nearly $14bn and manufacturing factories rise to 6,500+, but growth is still constrained by declining foreign aid, banking frictions, and limits on global economic ties. Women in Business: The Afghanistan Women’s Chamber of Commerce and Industry says women with official business licences have surged to about 10,000 in five years, though market access and finance gaps remain. Agriculture & Trade Links: Kabul and Tehran pushed for deeper agricultural cooperation, including improved seeds, machinery, plant and animal health, dairy, research, irrigation and technology transfer. Industry & Infrastructure Claims: Taliban officials marked five years in power, highlighting projects like the Qosh Tepa Canal as a route to food self-sufficiency and pointing to electricity, gas and railway work. Rights Pressure: The Afghanistan Freedom Front says Taliban restrictions on women are structural policy, arguing sustainable development needs women’s education, jobs and equal participation. Cross-border Security Spillover: Reports from Bengaluru allege arrests tied to Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan links and plans involving travel to Afghanistan, underscoring ongoing regional security risks.

Afghanistan’s Energy Reality: Afghanistan still imports over 90% of its petroleum needs, with domestic supply only 5–7%, and fuel prices tied to global diesel costs and incoming shipments—an ongoing pressure point for households and industry. Taliban Diplomacy vs. Human Rights: Five years after the Taliban takeover, campaigners warn that rising diplomatic engagement with the regime is undermining consistent human-rights demands, as UN reporting highlights bans on women’s education and work and broader repression. Education Crisis: A new analysis argues Afghanistan’s education “horizon” has been stolen—girls and young women face years of interrupted schooling with futures frozen by the ban on education beyond grade 12. Security and Terror Links: A UN Security Council monitoring report attributes the November 2025 Red Fort blast to Al-Qaida in the Indian Subcontinent (AQIS), describing a shift toward smaller cells and attempts to expand operational reach, including toward Bangladesh. Regional Trade Signals: India reaffirmed “longstanding ties” with Afghanistan, citing recent engagements and ministerial visits that support development cooperation, trade, and connectivity. Local Hardship in the North: Drought in Balkh’s Zari district is cutting rain-fed farming output, raising food and transport costs and worsening access to clean water, healthcare, and education.

Women-led microenterprise under pressure: In Kabul’s outskirts, a jam-making workshop run by Najia shows how a rare income path for women is shrinking as Taliban rules require men to market products and restrict women’s public trade participation. Energy security & costs: Afghanistan consumes about 3.5 million tonnes of petroleum products yearly, with only 5–7% from domestic supply and over 90% imported; diesel prices are cited as volatile as shipments arrive. Drought hits livelihoods: Balkh’s Zari district faces worsening rain-fed farming losses, rising transport costs, and shortages of clean water, healthcare, and education. Regional gas infrastructure: Turkmenistan says it will resume substantive TAPI pipeline talks with Pakistan within months, aiming to complete the Herat section by year-end. Food price shock from shipping war: Black Sea disruptions are pushing up global wheat prices as U.S. cuts forecasts for Russian and Ukrainian exports. Local security & governance: Badakhshan’s Taliban-appointed mayor of Faizabad was assassinated, underscoring instability around resource disputes. Trade & industry risk: U.S. seized 440+ pounds of seed cotton from an Afghan traveler, citing threats to U.S. agriculture and the textile industry.

Afghanistan–Iran Trade Push: In Kabul, Afghanistan’s Industry and Commerce Minister Nooruddin Azizi and Iran’s Agriculture Minister Jihad agreed to expand bilateral trade, aiming to lift commerce to $10 billion by easing barriers, strengthening the Joint Economic Commission, and backing private-sector cooperation. Herat Manufacturing Boost: A $30m pharmaceutical factory was inaugurated in Herat, signaling continued investment in Afghanistan’s industrial production capacity. Mining & Security Pressure: A bomb attack killed the mayor of Faizabad in Badakhshan, underlining how instability is hitting Afghanistan’s key mining province as the Taliban expands the sector. Agriculture Infrastructure: Reports highlight four irrigation canals completed in Badakhshan, supporting local farming and water access. Education & Workforce Risk: UNESCO warns that 90% of Afghan ten-year-olds can’t read or understand a simple text, a long-term threat to future skills for industry and services. Regional Trade Disruption: Afghanistan–Pakistan border closures have stretched beyond 300 days, stalling trade flows that many Afghan businesses rely on.

Afghanistan–Iran Trade Push: Kabul hosted talks between Afghanistan’s Industry and Commerce Minister Nooruddin Azizi and Iran’s Agriculture Minister Gholamreza Nouri Ghezeljeh, aiming to lift bilateral trade to $10 billion by easing barriers, expanding private-sector cooperation, and improving logistics like transit through Iran and refrigerated containers via Chabahar. Industrial Growth in Panjshir: Afghanistan’s eastern Panjshir has started $10 million in new industrial projects, including factories for drinking water, serum, and non-alcoholic beverages, with local support for private investors and job creation. Security and Mining Pressure in Badakhshan: A bomb attack killed Faizabad’s mayor, Habib-ur-Rahman Mansour, in Badakhshan, highlighting how the province’s growing mining role under the Taliban is paired with persistent militant threats. UN Counterterror Update: A UN report says the November 2025 Red Fort attack was officially attributed to AQIS, warning the group is evolving into a regional terrorist entity with decentralized cells and possible efforts to exploit Bangladesh—while also noting rising South Asia cross-border tensions. Cement and Power Signals: Pakistan’s Fauji Cement reported strong FY26 results and dividend plans, while Afghanistan-linked power-sector interest continues, including offers to assess and rehabilitate power plants—key signals for regional industrial reliability.